Where will artificial intelligence (AI) go in the next 30 years?

This is an interesting question that is naturally interwoven into the fabric of how mankind is to evolve.

Depending on what side of the fence you sit, the prospects of a future where mankind has progressed with the support of AI can either fill you with trepidation or hope. For those who are worried, the anxiety is often due to the challenges that this type of a future could bring. For those who marvel at what is possible in future by harnessing the power of AI, the benefits outweigh the costs. Let’s take a deeper look at both perspectives to more clearly understand what outcomes could be waiting for us in a future more aligned to AI, and the potential roadblocks as AI and civilization, evolve together.

For those who marvel at what is possible in future by harnessing the power of AI, the benefits outweigh the costs

On the path to a future where AI has accelerated the growth of mankind it can only be assumed that challenges will be encountered. In fact, several of these challenges exist today; some without clear solutions. Identifying these challenges is a key step to ensuring that a future with AI has strengthened society as we know it as opposed to weakening it.

One challenge associated AI today is existing ethical bias toward AI becoming “self-aware”; I often refer to this as the “SkyNet conundrum”. The issue states that if computers become self-aware, powered by advancements in AI, then computers will begin to self-preserve at the cost; potentially at the expense of the human race. While this seems highly unlikely, we can’t ignore the truth in that no-one definitively knows what full self-awareness means in the scope of computing at scale, however what we do know is that should self-aware AI become hostile it will not be due to some innate drive to dominate or reproduce, but due to some algorithmic programming developed and embedded by a human. In that regard, it becomes no different than a hacker developing a malicious worm that infects computer systems. Is the worm to blame or the hacker that developed the worm with malicious means intended? Viewing through this lens, it seems that even in the recipe of digital self-awareness, humans are still the most dangerous ingredient.

The professional and academic focus on artificial intelligence is gaining steam but largely in its infancy

Another challenge that we are likely to encounter in the future is a gap in expertise. The professional and academic focus on artificial intelligence is gaining steam but largely in its infancy. For example, a recent research study from Statista showed $25 billion dollars in revenue from worldwide artificial intelligence software in 2019. While this may seem like a lot, considering the fact that artificial intelligence could potentially touch nearly every aspect of life as we know it, the number is relatively low. When taking a macro-perspective, the 25 billion dollars is almost unrecognizable against the approximate $140 trillion global GDP in 2019. It is irrefutable that there is a direct correlation between the potential monetization of artificial intelligence and academic interests. This will partially drive student behavior and ultimately the capacity of global AI expertise. Since we expect to say and exponential growth in AI over the next several years, its fair to expect significant growth in academic interests ultimately driving further interests in AI as an area of study, thus helping to overcome gaps in global AI expertise.

...a recent research study from Statista showed $25 billion dollars in revenue from worldwide artificial intelligence software in 2019...

Another challenge that we are likely to encounter in the future is a gap in expertise. The professional and academic focus on artificial intelligence is gaining steam but largely in its infancy. For example, a recent research study from Statista showed $25 billion dollars in revenue from worldwide artificial intelligence software in 2019. While this may seem like a lot, considering the fact that artificial intelligence could potentially touch nearly every aspect of life as we know it, the number is relatively low. When taking a macro-perspective, the 25 billion dollars is almost unrecognizable against the approximate $140 trillion global GDP in 2019. It is irrefutable that there is a direct correlation between the potential monetization of artificial intelligence and academic interests. This will partially drive student behavior and ultimately the capacity of global AI expertise. Since we expect to say and exponential growth in AI over the next several years, its fair to expect significant growth in academic interests ultimately driving further interests in AI as an area of study, thus helping to overcome gaps in global AI expertise.

A concern that is partially being realized today is the notion of AI in support of war or crime. With many nations firmly in opposition to each other, digital warfare has emerged as the weapon of choice for covert action. These early battlefronts were manned by elite teams of military and private contractors; however, the future is likely to look much different. Even today, armies of “botnets” are leveraged to pool global compute power which is directed to some nefarious end by a person or group of perpetrators. With the rise of artificial intelligence these armies will likely gain advanced capabilities that could be used to create truly disruptive force with severe consequences globally. While this is ominous, it’s no more ominous than war and crime itself. Wars cause catastrophic loss of life and immeasurable pain and suffering today without AI. Is it possible that AI could take this a step further leading to an inevitable extinction of society? I suppose anything is possible, however this future isn’t likely. If anything, as warfare becomes more digital, it could also become less physical. Where victory isn’t measured in body count, but rather economic disruption. Of course, economic disruption in and of itself carries a human cost, however the degree of which should be debated by humanitarians and economists. One discussion not often given the appropriate acknowledgment is that AI also can help combat digital warfare or crime. For example, there was a time where email almost became unreadable due to the amount of digital spam that existed. Email spam is now largely a minor nuisance due to improvements in algorithms and globally connected anti-spam networks. This is a case of where AI and improvements in computer science have fueled improvements in the lives of billions around the world. Suffice to say that things could change dramatically over the next 30 years regarding digital war and crime, however while it may feel dark, AI has the opportunity to be a part of the solutions as opposed to the cause.